Even as Donald Trump left the White House on January 20th, his influence is still felt throughout the Republican Party, in Congress and in state houses throughout the country, and it is likely to remain that way for a while. Although the storming of the U.S. Capitol building on January 6th and the fallout from it made it a little easier politically for Republicans to distance themselves from Trump, there is a serious faction of the party that is still deeply entrenched with him.
Unsurprisingly, some nationally prominent Republicans seem to be angling to gain the support of Trump voters in anticipation of the 2024 presidential election, namely Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley. Strategically, it is hard to fault them for trying to gain an early jump on the Trump base, but I expect it to be a losing move for candidates hoping to beat the Democrats in the next general election. The sooner we are able to move on from Trump and Trumpism, the better for the sake of competitiveness of Republicans in national politics. And if Trump is no longer the center of the party, the next question is: Do we return to the status quo of the Bush years that preceded him, or will we care about a truly limited government and a return to federalism?
While the makeup of the Republican constituency is not going to change much in four years, prospective candidates have an opportunity to improve the discourse and can bring a more principled form of conservatism to the forefront of the party by promoting conservative ideas and even making a case to non-traditionally Republican voters. The Republican National Committee even recognized the need in 2013 to do better with women and minority voters in its “Growth and Opportunity Report.” While Trump’s victory in 2016 flew in the face of the report, the next election will provide a chance to perform better with those demographics. One encouraging trend for Republicans following November’s election is Trump’s strong performance with Latino voters, especially in Texas and Florida.
As we move on from the unorthodox four years of the Trump presidency, what will be remembered most is the flamboyant tweets and constant disagreements with the media. In some ways, his willingness to stand up to the mainstream media’s narrative-framing was admirable, but too often it was not in defense of policy, just himself. And the reality TV-style coverage of the Trump presidency manifested itself on cable news. From CNN to Fox News, on a daily basis, coverage of the White House was a way for talking heads to yell at each other, which turned out to be a successful way of driving up their ratings. Going forward, I sincerely hope for a more civil, nuanced, and policy-oriented dialogue, something unlikely to find on television.
The reality of the political landscape is that with Democrats controlling both chambers of Congress for at least the next two years and the White House for the next four, it is not hard to imagine a return to a strong GOP opposition to big government policies, like the typically bloated Omnibus spending bills, possible gun infringements, and programs like Medicare-for-All that have been floated over the past few years. Already, through executive orders, Joe Biden has signalled that the oil and gas industry is within his crosshairs. This environment could set up the GOP for political success in future years.
As the Tea Party movement spawned in response to Barack Obama in 2009, conservatives can hope for a serious revival of fiscal conservatism. During Trump’s tenure, annual federal deficits were on par with and exceeded those of the Obama years (even before the COVID-19 pandemic) and were accompanied by Republicans en masse staying silent on the ballooning national debt.
Perhaps, now that they are the governing minority, Republicans are ready to find their conservative roots once again. In anticipation of 2022, Republicans have a real chance at retaking one or both houses of Congress; the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives now narrowly sits at 222-212, and the Senate is split at 50-50. Considering the historical norm of the president’s party losing seats in the midterms, Republicans have plenty to look forward to. Could a conservative opposition bring a midterm power shift in DC?